Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making the news in the markets:

Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories during US hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Diary America.

Bitcoin is slipping into a weaker market structure as the steady bidding that supported prices earlier in the year gives way to reduced demand and defensive positioning.

In a recent note, CryptoQuant wrote that the fundamental demand wave of the cycle has already passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, treasury company buying evaporating, and strategic buying falling to year lows.

That doesn’t mean the upside is bullishly limited, the crypto quant says, with the possibility of rallies below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.

Polymarket trader are positioned around this weakness, assigning the highest probability of a move to 85,000 and giving almost no weight to upside scenarios.

Glassnod added With short-term holders realizing losses at their fastest pace since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have moved into full risk-off mode, with options traders burdened by climbing PUDS and implied volatility.

Against this backdrop, Glassnode is close to 88,600, on a cost basis for active investors, as the market’s next critical test.

A sustained move below this level would signal to recent active investors for the first time in the cycle and that bearish momentum is taking control. The next support sits in the real market at around $82,000, which Glasnode describes as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023.

The coming weeks will show whether buyers can re-serve themselves or whether support is provided and the downturn deepens.

Market movements

BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly slipping below $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market on edge as it looks for support.

ETH: Ether is trading around $3,038 on the day, slipping slightly on the day as it tracks bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.

Gold: Gold, after touching an intraday high of $4,132, is trading near 4,067, as risk after risk spreads across markets.

Nikki 225: Asia-Pacific markets continued to rise on Thursday as a strong NVIDIA earnings report boosted chip stocks, lifting the Nikkei 225 up 3.7 percent.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Samurai Wallet co-founder Bill Hill sentenced to 4 years in prison for unlicensed money transmission (Coindesk)
• New Hampshire Unveils $100 Million Bitcoin Collateralized Municipal Bond (DecryptJeez
• Options accelerate third-quarter profit after adding US spot trading (coindesk)