In a stunning display of US energy dominance, the US has broken export records for crude oil, diesel and petrol – sending a powerful message on Gulf Day as military options against Iran remain firmly on the table. This historic achievement underscores the remarkable strength of U.S. manufacturing and refining capacity, even amid global tensions. This comes as Iran says we can expect a message from Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei on the occasion of Persian Gulf National Day. Of course, what better way to celebrate Gulf Day than by celebrating America’s energy achievements, proving that America can be the world’s most reliable global energy supplier and the world’s new swing producer.
An Energy Information Administration (EIA) report shows that the US energy industry can rise to the challenge! The US exported 14,179 barrels per day of all petroleum products. That always blew past last week’s record of 12,881 million barrels a day and was above the 10,645 million barrels a day we exported a year ago to put that in perspective. This means that the US is currently in a league of its own for total energy product exports. No one else is exporting anywhere near 14 Mbps. This underscores America’s position as the world’s top oil producer and key swing/global supplier. In fact, based on historical data, no other exporter on the planet can match 14 mbpd of total liquids even in short spikes. Exports alone rose to a record 6,438 million barrels, up from 4,798 million barrels per day.
The numbers speak volumes: Record U.S. hydrocarbon exports not only boost domestic energy security and economic strength, but also strengthen America’s strategic advantage globally. As tensions rise in the Persian Gulf, Washington’s ability to flood global markets with reliable energy supplies serves as an economic victory and a subtle reminder of its lasting influence. Still, spots climbed to $126, the highest level in four years. WTI was higher after it became clear that the Trump administration was going to reject the Iranian peace proposal and consider new options for military action against Iran.
While recent price increases understandably grab the headlines, it’s important to recognize the silver lining: events in Iran are actively reshaping the global energy landscape. The dispute has not only precipitated the UAE’s exit from OPEC, but it has put the United States on center stage as a major energy powerhouse. America is now building new, long-term partnerships around the world, proving time and time again that when the world needs a reliable energy provider, even in moments of crisis, America is ready to be the provider of last resort.
The move comes days after the UAE’s exit from the Russia cartel is still rocking the conspiratorial coalition. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak sent a clear message today: Moscow has no plans to leave the OPEC+ deal after the UAE’s sudden exit, and sees no immediate threat of a catastrophic price war.
Speaking to Interfax and other Russian agencies, Novak stressed that OPEC+ would continue to work despite the UAE’s May 1 departure. Russia remains fully committed to the 2016 agreement aimed at stabilizing the market. He described the current global oil market as facing “the industry’s deepest crisis”, with widespread supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz issue keeping large volumes of oil off the market while demand is increasing. And from the American perspective, demand is growing because we provide energy to the world.
Still, US crude inventories saw a significant draw of 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels, according to the EIAs. The draw was better than analysts’ expectations of a modest build or small draw of around 0.2–0.3 million barrels and follows last week’s build. Other key highlights from the report showed that refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day, up 85,000 barrels per day week-over-week, with utilization at 89.6 percent. Inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels and are now about 2 percent below the 5-year average. Distillate inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels and are about 11 percent below the 5-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by a total of 17.0 million barrels.
Crude stocks remain about 1% above their 5-year average for this time of year, but a sharp draw — driven by strong exports and refinery demand — adds bullish pressure. Strong domestic demand, with refineries running hard ahead of the driving season, coupled with record US crude exports that pushed the US to a net crude exporter on a weekly basis, further tightened the market.
Fitch Ratings sees the UAE’s departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026 as having little immediate impact on oil markets or its credit ratings. The reason: Ongoing bottlenecks — particularly the Strait of Hormuz tension — limit the UAE’s ability to export oil, preventing any change in supply. However, once the dust settles and exports resume, the UAE will have the freedom to increase output beyond OPEC quotas. Meanwhile, higher oil prices bolstered fiscal strength for both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, bolstering government coffers, improving the trade balance, and fueling ambitious diversification plans such as Saudi Vision 2031 and UAE reforms. This near-term revenue cushion helps protect their credit ratings from market volatility, even as Fitch closely monitors their progress toward reducing dependence on oil.
Today’s market action is going to be up and down again with concerns about the duration and impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the news.
As for the shoulder season we are sleepwalking and storage builds are piling up. Natural gas futures are hovering in the $2.60–$2.70/MMBtu range, under pressure from strong storage injections and a mild springtime, although LNG exports and potential summer cooling demand are keeping prices from falling further.
Close contracts are near recent lows but show resilience as forecasts cool. Cash markets are mixed, with demand in the Northeast seeing some spot premiums. Production is stable at 109–110 Bcf/d with some cuts in areas such as Marseilles due to seasonality. LNG feed gas demand is strong around 20 Bcf/d as new capacity comes online, and exports to Mexico remain strong. The shoulder season slumber continues, but keep an eye on the summer power burn and any tropical activity in the Gulf that could tighten the market.
Analysts are expecting a solid storage injection of 70–85 Bcf for the week ending April 24, compared with the consensus estimate of 73–83 Bcf. This follows last week’s hefty +103 Bcf build, bringing gas working in storage to 2,063 Bcf—142 Bcf over last year and 137 Bcf above the five-year average. Another build in this range maintains a year-over-year surplus and adds to the buffer against historical norms. A small build-up can boost prices, while a large build-up maintains bearish sentiment. Inventories are comfortably within historical ranges heading into the injection season, giving the market a cushion but leaving room for volatility if heat waves or exports spike.
Fox Weather is reporting that we will see mildly warmer conditions across much of the U.S. and that is reducing heating demand as we say the winter weather gets a good reprieve. A few cooler shots could hit the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, which should boost demand slightly, but overall heating degree days are below normal. There are no large heat domes yet to trigger large demand for cooling, but late spring weather models are worth a look.
Storms in the Plains and Texas, along with possible systems in the Northeast, could cause localized impacts, but nothing on the Gulf horizon could disrupt supplies. Stay tuned for the EIA storage report—it could set the tone for the next move.