Say Bitcoin Bears having a good time would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency has fallen 14 percent in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the crash in February. The broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, and most analysts say the situation could worsen if BTC breaks below the critical $60,000 threshold.
Amid the gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.
Kendrick said this week’s crypto pain was real, but he thinks “less is imminent.” His case rests on three pillars:
Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the firm to do just that after selling 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that, if confirmed next Monday, he would consider it a temporary signal that the low is low.
ETF holdings are stronger than feared: The 11 spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen net outflows of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet, if we zoom out, the holdings have barely moved. Cumulative net inflows since the start of 2024 are back to $54.2 billion, where they were earlier this year. “They went above 682k and then back down to 674k (broadly unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are structurally much stronger than I feared in February.”
Liquidations are mostly done: $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin futures bets have been liquidated by exchanges. This figure is consistent with January, and with BTC already badly underperforming equities this year, it argues that the pool of leveraged longs is lower than ever.
The carrier? There are a lot of “ifs” involved in predicting the exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, gathering here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.
“I think when we look at $100k with BTC and $4k with ETH at the end of 2026, we’ll say that was the buy zone we all wanted.” Be careful!
Read more: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending?
Today’s tip
The weekly bitcoin price chart is suggesting the same thing as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: the bear market may be in its final stages and the bottom may be near.
The cryptocurrency is trading near its 200-week simple moving average. This is notable because previous bear markets ended near the same average, as the green arrows on the chart show.
So, if the past is a guide, there may be a downfall soon. However, remember that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.