Users of the prediction market have predicted — and profited from — the U.S. and Israeli military’s bombing of Iran.

On the polymarket, $529 million was traded on linked contracts at the time of the attack. According to Bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts made $1 million in profits by correctly betting that the U.S. would attack Iran by February 28 — behavior that could indicate insider trading.

The terms may simply reflect broader speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran, but BubbleMaps CEO Nicholas Wiman said the anonymity of polymarkets, as well as the “circulation of information involving war or conflict,” could create incentives for informed participants to act quickly.

Back in January, analytics firm Polysights also noted A sharp increase in bets around the possibility that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will not retain the role until the end of March.

Responding to concerns that such wagers could essentially provide a financial incentive to kill, Tariq Mansoor, CEO of Kulshi said“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where the potential outcome includes death, we put rules in place to prevent people from profiting from death.” He added that Kalshi will refund all fees from these conditions.