Overall speed in AI moderates after a fast run, but semiconductors keep going.

Tech continues to dominate the market. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s comments have been powerful, most recently when he quoted Marvel () as the next trillion dollar company. Shares are up 27% on comment (+70.4% in one month, +307% LTM) but still only have a market cap of $244B.

Trump’s comments have also been closely watched. He called Dell ( ) a great company and a few days later, Dell announced a new $9.7B Pentagon deal, then reported massive up-and-down beats, and shares hit a new all-time high (+111% in one month, +291% LTM).

Involvement in building data centers has been the Midas touch for dozens of companies. Today is having its best day since its biggest gain since 2018 due to data center inclusions. Shares are up 26% today, +30.5% in one month, +88.6% LTM.

Companies paying for data centers aren’t paying for picks and shovels either. Brilliant 7 months up 4.7%, and flat LTM. One reason is that not only have large expenses absorbed most of their large free cash flow, they have also scaled back their large share repurchase programs. There is a clear belief that first mover/leader advantage is important in global tech markets, as seen in search with Alphabet and online commerce with Amazon. Playing catch-up is difficult and expensive.

The costs of building AI are staggering. Year to date, AI-related companies have issued $140B in investment-grade debt, which is 49% of total issuance. It also accounts for 38% of high-yield debt ($21B) and 87% ($220B) of venture capital funding. A total of $380B represents 64% of all capital flows. Today, Alphabet () announced a secondary offering of $80B in new equity to help fund its AI spending, its first equity raise in two decades.

There remains little news of developments on the Iran front, which should be troubling with shrinking reserve inventories, particularly in distillates. Prices are marginally lower today, with July at $91.7/bbl, up 4.4% in a week but down 9.9% in a month.

Interest rates are low today, below 4.5%, below 5%, and at 4.04%, despite the risk of prolonged energy price inflation. All are low for last week but will remain high for last month.

The trend remains positive, a potential catalyst for further material gains through a resolution with Iran.