Three days of selling and a 3.7% drop in the NASDAQ 100 index is all the correction we got! Given the magnitude and speed of the rally, and the fact that the Iran war is not technically over, this seems remarkable.

That was for May’s big “sell-off” – down just 3.7 percent.

Right now, according to statements from the White House, it looks like there will be a formal 60-day ceasefire with Iran, giving the warring parties time to reach a permanent deal. If hostilities do not resume, bond yields should fall, and so should oil prices, which should support the stock market.

That doesn’t mean the market will straighten out for stocks, though, as the rally has been intense and some sort of consolidation pullback should come this summer, it looks like it will start at a higher level.

Assuming the Iran war does not resume, The big market event is SpaceX’s IPO.which will likely inject $85 billion in fresh capital into the company and give it a market value of $1.75 trillion (currently estimated, though that amount could change due to investor interest at the time of the IPO).

This could be as big a market event as an intermediate-term top, as the $85 billion in other securities sales to come into the IPO will move the stock market. I wouldn’t be surprised if the underwriters take the intake to $100 billion.But we have to wait for details about the offer, which is likely to arrive on June 12. In the best-case scenario, the rally will continue for the next three weeks and could be substantial.

As expected, Elon Musk lost his lawsuit against OpenAI last week — based on limitations, not the merits of the case — in what I refer to as a clear case of “sour grapes,” as Sam Altman has emails pushing him to take over OpenAI and make it a profitable subsidiary of Tesla.

It’s hilarious: We asked OpenAI’s chatbot to retrieve details of emails that have been released into the public domain by OpenAI.. In Elon Musk’s own words from OpenAI:

Some of the most quoted quotes were:

“Tesla is the only way that can even hope to hold a candle to Google.”

And:

“Open AI needs to go profitable.”

According to the released correspondence, Musk argued that OpenAI could not compete with Google unless it raised a lot of capital and adopted a profitable model. OpenAI says Musk proposed to merge OpenAI into Tesla or give it majority equity and control.

In a 2017 email chain, Musk reportedly said:

“Either do something yourself or continue with OpenAI as a non-profit.”

OpenAI gave us a link to the full email release, not just those excerpts. Elon Musk may be into self-driving cars, giant rockets that shoot massive amounts of satellites into orbit, satellite internet and ambitions to colonize the moon and Mars, but It has a “sour grapes” problem when it comes to OpenAI.

OpenAI itself is coming up for an IPO with a market value of around $1 trillion. Close behind is an OpenAI offshoot called Anthropic, which has a private market value of about $800 billion. By the time these two IPOs debut, their market value could exceed $2 trillion. – The success of their CEOs, Sam Altman and Dario Amoudi, who cannot compete with each other, even though they worked together for years. Earlier this year, at the end of an AI summit in India, everyone was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Modi in the center, but the two refused to shake hands (center, near the Prime Minister).

OpenAI’s CEO warned two years ago that we would have problems with memory and CPU shortages.because the more GPUs deployed (the AI ​​chips that Nvidia is famous for), the more CPUs are used.

It used to be that when GPU clusters were small, the ratio in the market was that for every eight GPUs, there was demand for one additional CPU (8:1). Due to the demand for managing large GPU clusters, the demand for CPUs has increased, and the ratio is now 1:1.

A huge increase in CPU and memory demand, as more and more GPUs are deployed, is leading to a reduction in both CPUs and memory chips. Computer memory makers have gone parabolic, but so have CPU markets, leading Intel, which was just hitting multi-year lows a year ago, to an all-time high, taking 10% share just before the US government began the hike.

It’s easy, as spending on data centers continues to accelerate. The rally in semiconductor stocks and the NASDAQ 100 index isn’t over yet, although stocks and sectors tend to undergo violent corrections when they turn parabolic..

Now, in the newly developing, more benign geopolitical environment, One reason to trigger a more meaningful correction is the SpaceX IPO.which could suck $100 billion from the rest of the stock market, but until then, the rally could be explosive.