XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 30% over the past three months, and fresh technical and on-chain signals suggest that the XRP/USD pair may be on the move.
XRP/USD Daily Chart. Source: Trading View
Important Points:
- Exchange outflows, positive wheel flows and strong ETF demand add to XRP’s bullish outlook.
- A wedge setup sees the price increase by about 30% through June.
An exchange outflow of around 35 million XRP boosted the upside case.
As of Saturday, XRP Ledger (XRPL) had recorded nearly 35 million XRP exchange outflows in the past 24 hours, according to Sentiment, marking its sixth largest daily outflow of the year.
Large exchange outflows usually suggest that investors are moving the token into private wallets or custody, reducing the amount of XRP immediately available for sale. Earlier this year, these spikes were preceded by minor rallies in the XRP price.
XRP Ledger Exchange Outflows vs XRP Price Source: Santiment
In March, a similar surge in exchange outflows preceded a nearly 20 percent rebound in XRP. An even stronger move followed February’s outflow surge, with XRP rising around 48–50%.
Those precedents reinforce the theory that the latest rally could lead to a rally in XRP prices in May.
In addition, US-based spot XRP ETFs have seen three straight weeks of net inflows, totaling nearly $82.88 million as of Saturday. SoSoValue data. The series brought total assets under management to $1.1 billion.
XRP ETF Weekly Net Flow. Source: SoSoValue
This indicates an increase in institutional appetite for XRP products.
A positive wheel flow reinforces negative emotions.
According to, XRP wheel flow has also turned positive. Crypto quant datasuggests that large wallets are now pooling rather than splitting.
The 90-day moving average of the XRPL wheel flow has moved back above zero after spending most of early 2026 in negative territory.
XRP wheel flow 30DMA. Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, positive wheel flow regimes have preceded strong XRP price trends, including the May-July 2025 rally.
This shift supports the broader accumulation narrative that is already visible in exchange outflows and ETF arrivals.
XRP wedge setup points to next 30% rally.
XRP’s technical structure supports the reverse case.
The XRP/USD pair has spent the past two years inside a falling wedge, defined by two downward-sloping, converging trend lines. Its April rebound from the lower trendline support now increases the odds of a move towards the upper boundary.
XRP/USD Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView
This target zone is near the 50-week EMA and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1.87–$1.89, about 30% above current levels through June.
Related: XRP holders return to profits as price eyes a potential 55% breakout.
Conversely, a decisive break below the wedge’s lower trendline threatens to invalidate the bullish narrative altogether.
Instead it could increase the odds of the price falling towards the 0.98 mark, which is aligned with the top point of the wedge and the 0.786 Fib line.