Six polymarket traders made nearly $1 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would attack Iran before the end of February, raising suspicions of insider trading.
The six wallets were created in February and almost all of their activity was based on contracts that predicted the timing of a possible U.S. attack, Bloomberg reported. ReportedIn many cases, shares were bought hours before the blasts were reported in Tehran, with some contracts fetching around $0.10, the report said, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA.
The timing drew the attention of Anchen investigators, who said the pattern resembled behavior associated with suspected insider activity on the prediction markets.
“In cases of war or conflict, information can circulate widely before it becomes public,” BubbleMaps chief executive Nicholas Wiman reportedly said. “Combined with the fact that polymarkets typically only require a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act quickly,” he added.
Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but had not received a response by publication.
Related: Polymarket user wins $400K bet on ZachXBT investigation
Polymarket Iran strike bets draw $529 million in volume
During the recent surge, more than $529 million swept away In contracts relating to strikes on the polymarket. The February 28 specific contract attracted nearly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders. The January 31 scenario came up with about $42 million.
Notably, one of the flagged accounts first lost money on an earlier forecast before placing a larger bet that was later returned to more than $170,000, suggesting that the trade itself is not falsified. Washington had publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators to the platform.
More cases of insider trading allegations have surfaced on the polymarket. This week, a small cluster of crypto wallets bet more than $1.2 million on a deal tied to an on-chain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published that an Axiom employee and associate had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
Last month, a Polymarket account made nearly $400,000 from a timed bet on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The purse had placed about $32,000 on Maduro’s ouster shortly before the news became public, raising concerns about insider trading.
Related: Polymarket users back Meteora in bet on ZachXBT crypto takedown
US lawmakers move to ban insider trading on futures markets.
As Cointelegraph reported, US Representative Richie Torres is preparing legislation called the Public Integrity in the Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to limit insider trading on prediction platforms. The proposal would bar elected officials, political appointees and executive branch employees from commercial contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they have nonpublic information.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced a wave of regulatory actions around the world, with several countries including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore and Portugal blocking or banning the platform after classifying its event-based contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than financial trading.
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