Meanwhile, retail investors are investing at an unprecedented pace, even as a major wave of new supply hits the market next summer.
What is the change to expectations of Fed rates (as implied by futures)?
In the span of 10 months, the market has dramatically revised its expectations for the advance into 2026, from six rate cuts in September, to two hikes today, yet equities rallied.
Source: Zero Hedge, Bloomberg
Retail investors are flocking to SpaceX at an unprecedented pace.
The ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE: ) saw inflows of nearly $7bn in June, the most in nearly a year, with the exact increase on the day of the SpaceX IPO. In the three trading sessions following the IPO, retail investors bought a net $369.8mn worth of SpaceX, according to Wanda Research.
For context, retail investors bought just $88.2mn over the same period. SpaceX’s 3-day retail purchases roughly match the combined total of Nvidia, , , the , and taken together. Retail Mania is unlike anything you’ve seen before.
Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
SpaceX has a massive supply shock next summer
SpaceX sold only 4.9% of its shares at the IPO. This chart shows when the remaining 95% become tradeable. Between June and July 2027, internal capacity will increase from 50.8% to 96.9% in just a few weeks, turning today’s limited float into a huge supply event. The short float that forced index funds to buy aggressively was only the first wave. Actual supply arrives on day 366.
Source: Rand Group
A massive bloodbath in the IT outsourcing sector
Accenture’s (NYSE: ) latest earnings report disappointed investors, as the company lowered its full-year revenue outlook and posted a 2% drop in quarterly bookings, sending its shares down 18%. Given Accenture’s leading position in the global IT services industry, the announcement triggered a sharp fall across the sector, with companies such as Cognizant, Wipro, Capgemini, IBM, and EPAM suffering significant losses.
The sell-off reflects weak demand for IT consulting amid sluggish economic growth and growing concerns that artificial intelligence could replace services traditionally provided by outsourcing firms.
The development is particularly important for India, where major IT giants such as TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro rely heavily on American and European clients. As Accenture’s performance is often seen as a leading indicator for the Indian IT sector, its results have added pressure on Indian markets.
Source: Bell Theory
The Middle East oil benchmark curve is now in contango.
According to Bloomberg’s Michael Ball, the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is creating an extraordinary challenge for markets in Asia in particular. After adjusting to lower supplies from the Middle East, Asian refiners turned to U.S. crude and other alternatives while also reducing processing activity as prices rose.
However, they now face a new influx of Persian Gulf oil. This shift has resulted in the Middle East’s crude curves shifting into contango, a market structure typically associated with expectations of excess short-term supply rather than shortages.
Source: Bloomberg, ZeroHedge
Is there a price for semi-perfection?
Semiconductor companies have increasingly gained prominence in global equity markets. JPMorgan highlights that the disparity between the sector’s share of market capitalization and its contribution to revenues has grown more than six-fold, more than twice the same ratio observed for the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Source: TME, JP Morgan
Long semiconductors are seen as a very crowded trade.
The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows that 80% of respondents consider long positions in semiconductor stocks to be the most crowded trade in the market. A long exposure to the brilliant 7 and oil is right behind semiconductors.
Source: BofA Fund Manager Survey, Cointelegraph