Post: Bitcoin’s price discovery is moving to Chicago

Bitcoin’s price discovery is moving to Chicago

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Bitcoin What was once considered an anti-establishment asset and anti-Wall Street can now be swayed by the bullish traders of those same destinations.

Trading in leading cryptocurrencies continues to shift to CME Group, and the exchange’s move to 24/7 derivatives later this year could further solidify its role as the dominant venue for institutional crypto risk.

The change removes one of the last advantages of crypto exchanges: non-stop market access.

“You’ll see more traditional hedge fund managers add more to the asset class, because they’ll be able to trade these instruments without having to upgrade their technology or transmit their signals,” Carl Naim, chief commercial officer, told CoinDesk. “Why would they want to risk dealing with an entity they don’t know?”

CME already leads the regulated bitcoin futures markets through open interest, and its contracts underpin much of the hedging activity associated with U.S. spot ETFs. Until now, however, trading was halted over the weekend, creating the so-called “CME gaps” and institutional investors being unable to adjust their positions while offshore exchanges continued to operate.

Round-the-clock trading removes this hurdle. Institutions that once relied solely on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or avoided weekend exposure will be able to continue to hedge by tightening arbitrage windows between prices for regulated futures and offshore perpetual swaps.

As these gaps close, so do large allocators who need to maintain exposure on crypto exchanges just for access. For institutions that prefer regulatory clarity and establish clearinghouses, CME is beginning to look less like an alternative and more like a default.

Even crypto exchange executives are aware of this. In January, OKX President Hong Fang wrote in a CoinDesk op-ed that crypto-derivatives trading could one day overtake rivals or even spot volume on major global exchanges, making US-regulated volatility markets a stronger anchor for bitcoin price discovery around the world.

Institutions calling the shots

For Naeem, this change reflects a broader evolution in how capital flows into bitcoin. What began as grassroots activity by retail traders chasing BTC as an alternative to Wall Street has turned upside down, with traditional institutions now calling the shots.

“Today we talk to a lot of sovereigns, a lot of institutions. They go for what they know,” he said, describing allocators gaining asset access through spot ETFs before considering more complex strategies.

With institutional positioning overweight, bitcoin’s short-term direction increasingly reflects global risk sentiment.

“If [Trump attacks Iran]obviously what we’re going to see is that it’s all going to be compromised,” Naeem said, citing one. Possible forced regime change in Iran by the US. “Gold is starting to rally. Equities will go down. Bitcoin will go down.”

In this framework, Bitcoin behaves less like a standalone crypto trade and more like a macro instrument, priced alongside equities and commodities rather than apart from them.

Naeem acknowledges the irony.

“Bitcoin was all about decentralization,” he said.

But as institutional capital scales and liquidity consolidates within regulated clearinghouses, the infrastructure around the asset is becoming increasingly centralized – as institutional money chases risk assets, not risk platforms.