Gold and Bitcoin are often placed side by side as potential competitors in the competition for investor capital. At the same time, it is important to point out several important differences between these asset classes, especially volatility and the persistent perception that BTC is a high-risk asset. Looking purely at full-year returns, the clear winner in this comparison is gold, which gained just over 65 percent, while bitcoin, by contrast, is still struggling to move marginally above its current 5 percent draw. A broad correction in BTC and a more localized yet dynamic pullback in gold create interesting conditions for positioning with long-term trends at more attractive price levels. With this in mind, it is worth reviewing both the current technical situation of the assets and their prospects for the coming year.

Bitcoin is waiting for a breakout from stability

When simply comparing Bitcoin’s recent behavior with its historical cycles over a decade, many analysts point to a recurring pattern. According to this framework, the market is currently in a corrective phase that could potentially extend for most of the coming year. Such a scenario becomes more likely if Bitcoin falls below its current stability range between $80,000 and $94,000 per coin. A downside breakout from this base could push towards the 74,000 area. In the short term, demand is clearly struggling to regain momentum, largely due to ongoing spending from ETFs, with approximately $780 million in assets under management leaving the market during the holiday period alone.

The base case therefore assumes a deeper correction, while keeping in mind that the long-term trend remains upward and deeper pullbacks may offer opportunities to seek long positions at more favorable prices.

Gold pulls back before the end of the year

The holiday period was marked by a dynamic continuation of the broader uptrend in gold prices, culminating in a breakout below the 4,600-per-ounce level. However, this level proved to be short-lived, as a sharp decline completely erased the Christmas rally, pushing prices towards the 4,300 per ounce area.

The start of the new year does not materially change the positive medium-term outlook for gold, with expectations of further and fiscal expansion in the US, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan. Under a less-than-targeted scenario, and assuming pro-growth conditions persist, gold could move toward the psychologically important $5,000 per ounce level.

When comparing gold and bitcoin, gold is currently more likely to maintain its uptrend. However, if BTC’s correction deepens, its percentage upside potential becomes significantly higher, assuming a return to upward momentum. In both markets, a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve — which has the market now pricing in at least 2 rate cuts over the next 12 months — should, overall, favor buyers.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or investment proposal. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.