Bitcoin Stabilizing around $73,500, about 10% below its monthly high of $81,000. The data shows that the stall shows a lack of new buyers rather than an abundance of sellers.
Risk assets advanced largely after reports that the US-Iran talks Can reopen. The Strait of Hormuz, an important oil passage, has raised tensions.
“Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions and normalization of the Strait of Hormuz are easing pressure on oil prices,” analysts at Spanish lender Bankinter wrote in a market note.
Against this supportive backdrop, Bitcoin’s weakness looks crypto-specific. According to CryptoQuant, the long-term holder supply reached a record 15.8 million BTC, usually a bullish sign as it reflects coins held rather than traded. The firm argued that the record could be hollow, reflecting a lack of market turnover rather than certainty.
Short-term holder supply has decreased by about 2.2 million BTC since December. This includes around 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that have been sitting idly past the 155-day long-term holder limit. The record is partly a pattern of inactivity, not fresh purchases.
Demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, a key driver of the past two years’ rally, has cooled. Glass node said Inflows and spot demand are too weak to sustain a move above the cost base level around $78,000. Net outflows from ETFs hit a nine-day record on Thursday.
Glassnode’s actual profit/loss ratio sits at 1.56, which is below typical levels of strong bull markets. But Polymarkettraders are suggesting a strong possibility Bitcoin closes the month between $72,000 and $76,000. Be careful!
Read more: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending?
Today’s tip
The ratio of altcoins (excluding the top 10) to bitcoin is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, a sign of strength against the largest cryptocurrency.
If the ratio ends the week above this level, the next resistance is a 20% gain against Bitcoin, which would indicate sustained momentum in the broader altcoin universe.