The Iran war is escalating again, and hopes for a viable ceasefire solution are fading. Trump is swinging his saber hard.. Up 7% this morning, now back above $75/bbl. 2 percent are up. This geopolitical black swan has become a black phoenix that keeps rising when it seems like it’s coming to an end..

Interest rates have increased on the implications of inflation.. That’s up 5bps to 4.21%, back when we were worried about a new hawkish Fed chairman. This is up 6bps from 4.58%, where we were in March when crude oil prices were very high.

That gap has ballooned to 18, and nearly 100 points have fallen since the dispute heated up again. Travel stocks are down, with airlines down 3.6 percent today, down 5.7 percent this week. Interestingly, semiconductors are in green.Up 0.5% today, though down 7.1% in the past week. 1.1 percent higher. Tech is down just 0.2% overall, leaving the bottom just 0.6%, while down 1.4%. The S&P market weighted is down 0.8% compared to 1.3% down.

It’s a risk-free day on Iran news. However, investors have been conditioned not to overreact to Trump’s threats.As it is his negotiating style. Since the conflict began, the oil market has adjusted supply from non-Hormes sources and increased refining output. It is also worth noting that despite the fall in crude oil prices, interest rates are high..

While the situation in Iran is out of control, there is a possibility of further decline. Earnings season, which begins next week, should have a bigger impact. And is still expected to be very strong. Iran is a real short-term risk, but its eventual demise should produce a meaningful relief rally that no one wants to miss.