On Thursday, the crypto market fell back along with Bitcoin. BTC$80,953.28 It is down about 0.7% since midnight UTC after Wednesday’s rally to a three-month high of $82,800.

Ether lost about 1% during Asian and European hours, now trading at $2,325, above $2,420 briefly on Wednesday.

The broader market is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after a two-month consolidation pattern between February and April, although it’s worth noting that Bitcoin needs to break $98,000 to break its current cycle of lower highs and lows.

With the likes of ALGO and TON rising between 8% and 9% since midnight UTC, the Altcoin market continues to indicate investor rotation.

U.S. equity futures were flat on Thursday while the dollar index ( DXY ) fell about 0.1 percent as investors remained optimistic about a deal to end the war in Iran.

Derivative positioning

• Crypto futures market activity has been relatively subdued over the past 24 hours, with total futures volume up just 3% to $216 billion, while overall open interest (OI) fell 3% to $133 billion. The difference between them suggests that positioning is being reduced rather than increased, which points to deleveraging across the market.
• BTC open interest fell to 762K BTC from 793K BTC the day before, ending a three-day streak of continuous growth in positioning. Among the major assets, DOGE recorded the largest drop in OI, down 6%, while XRP OI fell nearly 1%. A decline in these assets suggests a reduction in capital outflows and appetite for speculation in the near term.
• DOGE positioning appears particularly weak. Funding rates remain negative at an annualized rate of about 6%, indicating that short positions are paying long to maintain exposure. At the same time, DOGE’s 24-hour Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is the most negative among major tokens, indicating aggressive selling pressure from market participants using market orders.
• BTC funding rates, meanwhile, remain broadly neutral after hovering around minus 4 percent annually in recent weeks. Normalization in funding suggests that excessive bearish positioning has been largely driven out of the market. Some observers see this reset as constructive for BTC price action.
• In contrast, both ETH and SOL recorded OI increases of 1% or more despite falling spot prices. An increase in open interest along with falling prices usually indicates that fresh short positioning is entering the market, indicating that traders are positioning for additional shorting in these tokens.
• TON stands on the positioning front. Open interest rose more than 10% to another record high, signaling continued capital inflows into the asset. The price of TON briefly touched $2.90 earlier today, its highest level since September, and the token is now up 93% on the week. A simultaneous increase in both price and OI indicates strong directional participation.
• TON, TRX, and ZEC are currently the only top 30 tokens posting positive OI-adjusted aggregate volume delta readings. This suggests that buyers are driving trading activity through aggressive market orders rather than passive limit bids. Most other major assets, including BTC, ETH, and XRP, continue to show negative CVD readings.
• In the options market, bullish sentiment is evident on Derebat, where call options at strike levels above $80,000 dominate the 24-hour volume rankings. According to Glassnode, dealers with short gamma exposure could buy into a potential BTC move above $82,000 to maintain hedges. This can further increase the speed.
• Meanwhile, the one-month volatility risk premium, which measures the difference between implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV), per glassnode has turned positive again. This shift indicates renewed demand for the short-dated option and suggests that traders are increasingly willing to pay for near-term volatility after longer periods of anticipation.

Token Talk

• CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) and CoinDesk MemeCoin Select Index (CDMEME) were Thursday’s best-performing benchmarks, rising 2.5% as speculative trading took effect.
• Bitcoin-weighted CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) indexes are flat after midnight UTC, while the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) was also marginally in the red.
• CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator is now at 45/100, up from its high of 32/100 at the end of March this time last month.
• Despite the optimism of the broader altcoin market, popular DeFi token MORPHO has lost 4.6% of its value since midnight UTC and 6.1% over the past 24 hours. It is currently trading at $2.13 with investors taking profits after a rally earlier in the week that lifted it to $2.33 from $1.95.