• Gold and silver retreated from record highs after Trump refrained from attacking Iran
• Oil also messes up, but Greenland remains a concern
• Stocks gained after Wall Street closed in the red on disappointing bank earnings
• Dollar slightly stronger, Yen found some support

Comfort and anxiety

Precious metals fell on Thursday, off their recent highs, as geopolitical risks eased somewhat amid heightened tensions in Iran and Greenland, as well as ongoing uncertainty over the future of Venezuela. The US president began 2026 in a combative mode, shortly after a brief and effective intervention in Venezuela, before Trump turned his attention to Iran and Greenland.

In addition, there appear to be no plans for further military operations in Venezuela, and the US has already begun selling off the country’s oil, and today is slipping.

More importantly, Trump has backed away from taking immediate action in Iran, after being assured by “very important sources on the other side” that the killing of anti-government protesters has stopped and planned executions have been postponed.

Retreat from gold, silver and oil, for now

Still, the situation is critical as Tehran is just trying to buy some time and US bases in the region are on high alert. But so far, the positive development has fueled a rally in safe-haven precious metals that have surged since the start of the year amid building geopolitical tensions.

Yesterday, after scaling a fresh record of 4,642.72, it has fallen to the 4,600 level. , which already boasts a year-to-date gain of 25 percent, has nose-dived just over 3 percent from yesterday’s all-time high of $90. And are still down today.

The news that Trump has reversed his decision to impose import tariffs on silver, platinum and palladium added to the selling pressure as investors rushed to stock up on these metals.

Meanwhile, the total has reached a 12-week high of around $60.

Trump has eyes on Greenland

But in addition to the strong possibility that Iran could at some point resume killings, angering Washington, investors also have to contend with Trump’s unwavering ambition to bring Greenland under US control.

Talks between Danish, Greenlandic and US officials did not go well yesterday, with Trump insisting that “anything less” than US control of Greenland was “unacceptable”, although there was agreement to establish a working group to continue efforts for a solution.

Elevated risks on both Iran and Greenland explain why the gold sell-off has been modest. Nonetheless, the headlines have helped fuel a decent rebound in risk appetite these days.

Mood improves in equity markets, due to higher bank earnings

Global equities are mostly positive, with US futures turning green after yesterday’s decline. Wall Street’s big banks reported mixed results after the Q4 earnings season didn’t get off to the best start.

Trump’s proposal to cap interest rates paid on credit cards couldn’t have come at a worse time. The long wait for the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is also dampening his sentiments a bit, as the tariff case was not included in the court’s announced Wednesday rulings, as had been expected.

Today will be the turn of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: ) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: ) to publish their earnings. In the meantime, small caps are outperforming and chip and AI stocks are rising in pre-market trade, buoyed by better-than-expected earnings and a positive outlook by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( NYSE: ).

Stronger-than-expected data out of the US yesterday is also picking up the mood. Moreover, Trump has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite the Justice Department’s investigation, following comments he made in an interview with Reuters.

Today’s focus will be on that.

The dollar is also strong despite the yen trying to recover

Earlier, it has been trading flat against a basket of currencies, holding firm near one-month highs over the past few sessions.

Expectations of 50 basis points in 2026 barely stood out amid all the mixed economic data during January, so the dollar’s direction is broadly bearish.

But against that, which has been under pressure recently, the greenback is retreating from yesterday’s peak of 159.45, following indications earlier today by Chapter Governor Kajuu Ida that further rate hikes are likely. Intensified verbal intervention by Japanese officials is also helping the yen rebound. However, it is hard to see how if Prime Minister Sanaa Takeuchi calls a snap election as expected, it could increase the LDP party’s majority in parliament, allowing it to push ahead with more fiscal stimulus.

UK stimulus numbers for November were little changed.