This week was characterized by a strong flow of news in terms of global macro prices and internal dynamics of the crypto market. The market quickly recovered expectations, while on the institutional side, ETF outflows and inflows competed against each other in a mixed picture. On social media, sentiment dropped to extreme fear levels, with technical charts looking down. This complex outlook has forced Bitcoin to find an equilibrium in the short term and determine its direction in the medium term.

Macro Front: Fed Winds Back in Bitcoin’s Favor

The most important macro development of the week was dovish statements from Fed members. The probability of a rate cut in December rose from 30 percent to 85 percent, providing significant relief to riskier assets and allowing bitcoin to recover from the territory it held after a sharp decline.

By mid-November, the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach and tough stance led to a government shutdown that disrupted data flows. Macro uncertainty limited risk appetite. During this period, Bitcoin retreated to the 80,000 band and experienced six months of gains. However, with the reopening of the government, supportive key data in the US, and a dovish tone from the Fed, pressure on the market eased. As a reflection of this, Bitcoin showed signs of finding a meaningful respite and bottom during the week.

The corporate front: A contrasting picture of costs competing with emissions

On the institutional front, the week witnessed heightened volatility. According to data from Coinshares, there were $1.94 billion in spending from crypto investment products last week alone, of which $1.27 billion came from bitcoin funds. Daily outflows of 3 523 million from Blackrock’s IBITE ETF clearly demonstrated the reluctance of institutional investors to reduce risk during the downturn.

However, in the second half of the week, the picture reversed, and the spot Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of 8 238 million in a single day. Fidelity’s new investment of $108 million in ETFs indicated that institutional interest is alive even during the correction.

Meanwhile, the strategy made an aggressive move down by buying another 8,178 BTC. While this suggests that some major players are using periods of volatility as opportunities to accumulate, on-chain data shows that long-term investors sell in bulk during the same period. The liquidation of around 800,000 BTC from long-term wallets in recent weeks is a clear indication of this inconsistent structure.

Community Emotions: Fear Peaks, Expectations Fall

,000 Bitcoin’s sharp retreat to the 80,000 level triggered a wave of panic on social media. The tone of posts on X and Reddit shifted away from the $150,000–$200,000 price targets that have been mentioned frequently in previous weeks and turned to the question, “Is a bear market coming?”. The fear and risk appetite index dipped into the 20s, further highlighting the extent of the disorder.

Sentiment data shows that this bearish period has produced an extremely negative sentiment over the past six months. According to an on-chain data provider, the ratio of positive to negative comments has reached a similar level to previous lows. While some analysts interpret the extreme fear as a phase of “emotional market cleansing,” which is historically common, some long-term investors say this sharp decline could be the last significant opportunity.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows that the OBO (head-to-shoulder) pattern, evident during the recent decline, has been completed, and the price has retreated to both the OBO target zone and FIB support at 0.786 (,85,260), giving it a strong position in this region. With reactive buying from this area, the price soon reached 90,987 at FIB 0.144, which started to be monitored based on the latest downward momentum.

However, it appears that this recovery has not yet matured. Although the rebound is strong, the main trend remains downward. The short-term saving average continuation clearly shows that this decline is being maintained.

Breaking the downtrend would require a move above 000 91,000, 94,700 and then 000 above 100,000, with persistence at these levels.

Unless these levels are breached, BTC rallies are more likely to be a bearish phase reaction move rather than a “trend reversal”. The fact that the Stochastic RSI has approached the overbought zone also suggests that the momentum loss may increase in the short term.

On the downside, the critical threshold is the 85,250 level. A daily close below this zone could push the price towards a key support area in the $75,000–$78,000 band.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or investment proposal. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.